ગુજરાતી
English
Go back, America – farmers’ slogan, preparing for nationwide protests
Cotton, potatoes, soybeans, and corn could ruin farmers.
Dilip Patel
Ahmedabad, March 3, 2026
The Narendra Modi-led central government has approved zero tariffs on the import of US agricultural and agro-based products. This is likely to directly impact 30 percent of Gujarat’s 5.6 million farmers. These include farmers who grow potatoes, cotton, peanut oil, corn, soybeans, and its oil. Rice imports are unlikely. Fruit orchards may be affected.
One to three seasonal crops are grown on 9.9 million hectares of land in Gujarat. American imports could impact 30 to 35 percent of Gujarat’s agriculture.
Therefore, the Gujarat Farmers Coordination Committee is preparing for a movement in collaboration with farmers’ organizations across the country, said Dahyabhai Gajera of the Coordination Committee.
According to the first advance estimate for 2024-25, Gujarat’s production of the state’s main crops could reach 6 million bales (170 kg) of cotton. Peanut production is approximately 5.8 million tons. Rice is 2.232 million tons. Maize is 5.81 million tons. Millet is grown on 1.66 million hectares, with an average production of 1,786 kg per hectare. The annual production of pulses is 2.0 million metric tons.
Maize
The United States can produce large quantities of maize. In Gujarat, maize is grown on 970,000 tons – 4% of the land area.
The cultivated area is estimated to be 2.85 million hectares to 2.87 million hectares. Productivity per hectare is 2,022 kg.
It is grown in the Panchmahal and Dahod districts of Gujarat, where it is a major food crop.
The MSP for maize for 2024-25 has been fixed at ₹10.225 per quintal.
Soybeans
Farmers are now sowing soybeans as a cash crop instead of cotton and peanuts. It is cheaper to cultivate and is also safe from animal attacks. Its support price is ₹4,892 per quintal.
The oilseed crop, soybeans, is cultivated on 440,000 tonnes – 1% of the land area. In 2023-24, it was 368,000 tonnes.
Cultivation is done on 300,000 hectares. Cultivation has doubled in five years.
Junagadh has 58,300 hectares.
Aravalli, Gir Somnath, Dahod, and Chhota Udaipur are also important centers.
Cotton
Cotton is grown on 6.6 million bales. Previously, 12 million bales of cotton were produced annually. Cotton is grown on 25% of the land. Approximately 30% of the 5.6 million farmers grow cotton.
The textile industry accounts for 6% of Gujarat’s total industrial production. Gujarat accounts for 35% of the country’s total cotton production, accounting for 60% of imports and 60% of exports, ranking first in the country. It ranks third in the world in denim production and first in India, accounting for 65% to 70% of production.
Gujarat has more than 860 cotton industry units. The textile industry accounts for 24% to 28% of the investment value of the small-scale industrial sector.
The textile industry is India’s oldest industry and plays a significant role in Gujarat’s economy. Until the 1960s, textiles and related industries dominated the industrial sector in Gujarat.
There are 118 textile mills in Gujarat, of which 67 are in Ahmedabad. This is the highest in the country. Of the 118 mills in Gujarat, 91 are engaged in spinning and weaving. After Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Bhavnagar, Rajkot, Porbandar, Bharuch, Petlad, etc. are important centers of the textile industry in Gujarat.
India has over 1,000 textile mills, of which approximately 700 are spinning mills, and the rest are spinning and weaving mills. The textile industry in India has seen the most development in Maharashtra and Gujarat, followed by Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Karnataka.
Cotton productivity in the United States is approximately 960 kg per hectare.
Thus, if there is a large import of American cotton into Gujarat, farmers could be ruined. Thus, Gujarat, which once produced 11 million bales of cotton, is now projected to produce 6 million bales of cotton in 2026-27.
Cottonseed Oil
119 to 125 crore kg of cotton is harvested annually. 10 to 15 crore kg of cottonseed oil is extracted from 70 crore kg of cottonseed. Large quantities are imported for oil extraction.
33% to 38% of the cotton crop is harvested. Approximately 62% to 67% of the cottonseed weight is extracted as cottonseed.
Approximately 13% to 20% of the total cottonseed weight is extracted as oil. After oil extraction, the remaining 80% to 85% is extracted as cottonseed meal, which is used as animal feed.
Of the 96 cottonseed oil brands in India, 70 are based in Gujarat. Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Telangana produce 63% of India’s cottonseed oil. There are 900 cottonseed and peanut mills in Rajkot, Jamnagar, Bhavnagar, Amreli, Kadi, and Mehsana.
Thus, if cotton is imported from the US, 60% of Gujarat’s cottonseed oil mills have closed. More are likely to close.
Potato
Potatoes are grown on 5.45 million tons of land in Gujarat – or 1.75% of the land area. Gujarat farmers produce 30 tons of potatoes per hectare, while American farmers produce 51 tons per hectare. Therefore, if the US imports potatoes, Gujarat could suffer huge losses.
Gujarat leads India in both potato production and processing. Potato-based industries in the state are concentrated in Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, and Rajkot.
Banaskantha has become a hub for potato processing in India. Banaskantha district is known for potato research and production in Asia, from where potatoes are exported domestically and abroad.
World-class companies like McCain Foods and Hyphen Foods are located here. Gujarat’s ISKCON Balaji Foods and Balaji Wafers have large plants in Gujarat.
Approximately 25% of the 1.15 million tons of potatoes are directly used in the processing industry. About 60% of the processed potatoes are processed into wafers.
This is used to make chips/chips, and 40% is used to make French fries.
The state has 500 cold storage facilities for potato storage.
After the two major companies, other American companies will capture the market.
Productivity – The world average productivity in 2024-25 is 22.9 tons per hectare.
New Zealand has the highest productivity in the world at 50.9 tons per hectare.
In the US, productivity per hectare is 49.1 to 51.4 tons.
In Denmark, it is 44.2 tons per hectare.
In India, it is 24 to 25.8 tons. In Banaskantha, Gujarat, productivity is 30.65 tons per hectare.
Rice
Rice will not come from the US, but Gujarat will, as usual, face a setback in rice exports.
Rice production is 1.7 million tons – 9 percent of the land is cultivated. Productivity is 2.538 tons, which is less than India’s, 50 percent less than global productivity and three and a half times less than Australia’s. Therefore, Gujarat cannot benefit from exports.
Total global rice production for 2024-25 is estimated to be 535 million metric tons. Of this, India produces 150 million metric tons, and China 145.28 million metric tons.
The average global rice productivity is 4.3 tons per hectare. Australia produces 8.64 tons, Mexico 7 tons, Japan 5.15 tons, and India 3.2 tons per hectare.
Wheat
Wheat is grown on 4.855 million tons—14% of the land area. According to Gujarat’s 2024 data, productivity was 3,027 kg per hectare. Importing wheat from the US could be expensive. Therefore, it cannot suppress the market.
India’s average productivity in 2024-25 is 3,595 kg per hectare. Punjab yields 5,045 kg, and Haryana 4,723 kg. In contrast, Gujarat farmers grow wheat at a higher price.
Wheat production in India is estimated to be 117.95 million tons.
World wheat production is projected to be around 800 to 842 million metric tons in 2024-25.
China produces 140.1 million metric tons, accounting for 18% of the world’s total. India is second in production with 113.29 to 117.95 million metric tons, accounting for 14%. The United States is at 53.65, and Canada at 34.96.
New Zealand produces 10 tons, the Netherlands and Ireland 9.2 to 9.4 tons, the United Kingdom 8 to 8.33 tons, and the United States 3.5 to 3.6 tons per hectare. India’s average productivity is 3.5 to 3.6 tons per hectare. About 42.4% of the world’s total wheat production comes from China, India, and Russia alone.
Agro-Based Industries in Gujarat
Gujarat’s major agro-based industries include cotton textiles, sugar, edible oil, and dairy.
There are 30,000 food processing units. The Gujarat Agribusiness and Export Promotion Policy aims to support 5,000 new agri-business units.
Agri-Tech Market:
Gujarat’s agri-tech market is expected to reach $3 billion (approximately ₹25,000 crore) by 2025.
There are 45 dairy plants.
There are 560 cold storage and fish processing units.
There are 3,300 pharmaceutical units, many of which use agro-based raw materials.
Industrial Production in Gujarat in crores of rupees
1960-61 3668
1970-71 1137
1980-81 7160
1990-91 27593
1992-93 41429
1993-94 46904
1994-95 62039
1995-96 84808
1996-97 87229
1997-98 110899
1998-99 113191
1999-00 118551
2000-01 127977
2001-02 147550
2002-03 182700
2003-04 207334
2004-05 260,749
2005-06 307,955
2006-07 372,581
2007-08 448,243
2008-09 508,088
2009-10 642,658
2010-11 806,784
2011-12 998,413
2012-13 1116,395
2013-14 1230,642
Pressure on U.S. Agriculture
The highest government support came in 2020.
The U.S. agriculture sector is facing many challenges. Higher input and production costs for some of the country’s key crops, including soybeans, corn, and wheat, along with lower commodity prices, are contributing to low or negative profit margins and lower net farm income projections for these crops.
The Trump Administration’s trade and immigration policies are exacerbating the challenges and economic uncertainty facing the agricultural sector.
In this regard, the Trump Administration is considering providing billions of dollars in additional aid to farmers. However, the source of the funds is unclear, and it is difficult to resolve it amid the government shutdown.
Agricultural exports account for more than 20% of the value of US agricultural production. Bulk commodities such as soybeans, corn, and wheat are the largest exports by value.
Excluding government support, net farm income is projected to remain flat through 2025.
Real farm income from commodity sales declined in 2023 and 2024.
The same thing happened in 2025. Therefore, subsidies will be required.
Farm debt is at record levels, with total farm debt projected to reach $386.4 billion in 2025.
Higher interest rates have increased the cost of borrowing money, and farming operations are facing challenges.
Total interest rate costs for farms are projected to be 17.7% higher in 2025 than in 2023.
Bankruptcies are on the rise:
With 181 farm bankruptcies in the first half of 2025, the number of bankruptcies is on pace to surpass 216 by 2024.
Tariffs have increased the cost of many farm inputs.
The US has also imposed tariffs on Chinese imports under authority granted by Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974; and it has imposed universal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) – an authority that has been challenged in court and is being considered by the US Supreme Court.
Due to the tariff action, the average effective tariff rate on farm inputs increased from 1 percent to 12 percent by August 2025.
The average effective tariff rate on tractors and other farm machinery and parts increased from zero to 16 percent and 13 percent, respectively.
U.S. agricultural exports have declined—especially
soybeans.
Agricultural exports account for more than 20 percent of the value of total U.S. agricultural production, with soybeans, corn, and wheat being the largest agricultural exports by value.
Trump’s first tariffs prompted other countries to take trade action in response to U.S. tariffs, which have hurt U.S. exports. Agriculture has been impacted.
U.S. soybean producers have been most affected. China is the top buyer of 50 percent of U.S. soybeans.
China did not purchase 3.5 million tons of soybeans from the U.S. in September.
China is purchasing soybeans from Brazil and Argentina.
This has increased uncertainty about U.S. agricultural exports.
Restrictions on illegal immigration could further exacerbate labor shortages in the U.S. agricultural sector.
This includes vegetables, greenhouses, and specialty crops like fruits and nuts, where illegal workers are more common. Employment in agriculture is declining. In 2025, it was negative, with a decline of 155,000. Consequently, this sector will experience lower production and higher prices.
Support
In 2019, the government provided $28 billion in relief to farmers affected by foreign tariffs using the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC), which is typically granted $30 billion in borrowing capacity to support the agricultural industry.
Provides cash payments to farms; the Food Purchase and Distribution Program, which buys and distributes surplus produce; and the Trade Promotion Program, which provides funds to create new export markets abroad.
According to projected figures for 2025, 22.4 percent of farmers’ net cash income will come from federal programs, including disaster assistance and insurance.
The Trump Administration is considering a $10-14 billion package for the agriculture sector to help soybean farmers.
Aid budget cuts have left $4 billion available, forcing the Administration to look elsewhere for funding.
In 2022, 22.1 million full-time and part-time jobs were linked to the agriculture and food sector—10.4 percent of total U.S. employment.
Of these jobs, approximately 2.6 million, or 1.2 percent of U.S. employment, were directly related to agriculture.
Employment in the agriculture and food-related industries supported another 19.6 million jobs. Of these, food service, eating places, and food/beverage stores accounted for the largest share—12.7 million jobs—and accounted for 3.3 million jobs. The remaining agriculture-related industries combined added another 3.5 million jobs.
Main Agricultural Products
Million Tons
Agricultural Products – 2003 – 2023
Maize 256.0 – 354.0
Cow Milk – 77.0 – 91.0
Soybeans – 67.0 – 89.0
Wheat – 64.0 – 58.0
Potatoes – 20.8 – 19.8
Chicken Meat – 14.7 – 17.4
Goat Meat – 12.0 – 11.7
Tomatoes – 11.4 – 12.6
Sorghum – 10.4 – 9.9
Oranges – 10.4 – 7.6
Bovine Meat – 9.1 – 10.5
Chickpeas – 9.1 – 8.6
Cotton – 6.0 – 5.6
Grapes – 5.9 – 7.7
Eggs – 5.2 – 5.6
Cotton Bales – 4.0 – 2.8
Apples – 3.9 – 4.1
The US market is dominated by four companies.
Cotton – 90%
Beef – 85%
Corn – 80%
Soybeans – 80%
Grocery – 69%
World Agriculture – 62%
Agricultural Machinery – 61%
Poultry Farming – 60% (Google translation from Gujarati)
