ગુજરાતી
English
Dilip Patel
Ahmedabad, May 11, 2024
BJP has brought forward the theory of Kshatriya, Dalit, Adivasi and Muslim. Congress was caught in the same cycle. The mistake that Madhav Singh Solanki made in 1985. That mistake has also been made in BJP’s anti-KHAM theory.
By creating an environment that Kshatriyas, Dalits, Adivasis and Muslims are mostly against BJP, BJP has pulled the remaining 70 percent of voters towards itself. This has brought a huge benefit.
After the controversy over the statement of Union Minister Purushottam Rupala, BJP candidate from Rajkot seat, Congress is expected to benefit from KHAM theory. But it is not so. Former Chief Minister Madhav Singh Solanki prepared the KHAM formula by combining Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim community. Won once. But due to the Kham theory of Congress since 1990, Congress remained away from power from 1990 to 2028. Because of Madhav Singh, Congress has been away from power for 38 years. It seems that it will remain there even now.
Congress has once again supported the Kshatriyas and pushed the rest of the voters towards BJP. According to the Kham theory, 4 state presidents have also come to the post of Congress President.
Even though BJP has overturned the theory that brought BJP to power, but no one was aware of it. BJP is trying to keep Kshatriyas, Muslims, tribals and Dalits away from the party from within. Publicly only Kshatriyas and Muslims are kept away. Dalits and tribals do not like BJP.
Due to this, Congress remained away from power for a long time. In the Lok Sabha, it has again got caught in the same game. Congress state president Shaktibhai Gohil is a Kshatriya. A popular leader is a Dalit.
Before Gohil, three Thakors became state presidents. The tribals were the leaders of the opposition.
The Congress hopes that after the resentment over Purushottam Rupala’s statement, Kshatriya voters will come to it. Public statements were made about this. Rakhi was tied. Appeals were made. Kshatriya leaders were brought to their meetings. That is why people of some sections have moved away from the Congress.’
The BJP has been winning assembly elections in Gujarat continuously since 1998 and has achieved a record victory in the 2022 assembly elections. In the 182-seat assembly, it won 156 seats, while the Congress was reduced to just 17 seats. Now the BJP has let 12 remain by changing parties.
In the history of Gujarat, the performance of the Congress in 2022 was very poor. Congress President Jagdish Thakor and Bharat Solanki were responsible for this. In 2017, the Congress won 77 seats. The average victory figure of the BJP against the Congress is around 20% but in Gujarat it is 30%.
When Narendra Modi was not the Chief Minister of Gujarat, it used to win good seats because of former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel. The new generation believes that BJP is in Gujarat only because of Modi. But the old generation has seen the strength of Congress.
In every Lok Sabha election since 1989, BJP has won more seats than Congress. From 2004 to 2014, when there was a Congress-led UPA government at the Center, even then BJP won more seats than Congress.
In the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP won all 26 seats in Gujarat. Not only this, in 2019, BJP candidates won 18 out of 26 seats in Gujarat by a margin of more than 2.5 lakh votes.
This time BJP’s target is to win every seat in Gujarat by more than 5 lakh votes. Won Surat seat without election.
In the Lok Sabha elections 2019, there were 15 seats in Gujarat where BJP got more than 60 percent votes. There were 5 seats where BJP won by a margin of more than 4 lakh votes.
In 2019, BJP got 69.7% votes in Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s Gandhinagar seat, Ranjanben Bhatt got 72.3% votes in Vadodara, Union Minister Darshna Jardosh got 74.5% votes in Surat and BJP state president CR Patil got 74.4% votes in Navsari seat.
It is difficult to say whether the same lead will be achieved in 2024 due to low voter turnout this time and no enthusiasm towards Modi or BJP.
Gujarat Lok Sabha seats
Year-BJP-Congress
1989 – 12 – 3 Others 11
1991 – 20 – 5 Others 1
1996 – 16 – 10
1998 – 19 – 7
1999 – 20 – 6
2004 – 14 – 12
2009 – 15 – 11
2014 – 26 – 0
2019 – 26 – 0
2024 – ? – !
In the last few Lok Sabha elections in Gujarat, the vote share of Congress along with seats has been continuously decreasing.
Congress made reservation an issue.
Former Congress President Rahul Gandhi showed the copy of the Constitution to the public in his election rally in Gujarat and said that BJP wants to change the Constitution. Congress has said that if BJP wins 400 seats, the reservation given by the Constitution will end. Let us tell you that the Congress’ KHAM theory also includes tribal and Harijan voters.
But the BJP has reacted to this by saying that the Congress will give reservation to Muslims equal to SC, ST and OBC.
Even Rajnath, Gadkari and Amit Shah do not want 370 seats. Congress could not take advantage of this in Gujarat.
After Indira Gandhi or Rajiv Gandhi got a huge majority, the Congress misused power. They raised the issue that Modi would do this.
Congress has had a disappointing performance in Gujarat in the Lok Sabha elections. This is the situation except for 9 seats.
Along with this, many big leaders have also left the party. Eastern State Congress President Arjun Modhwadia has left the party
Left and joined BJP.
Arjun Modhwadia was the biggest OBC face of Congress in Gujarat. Which was taken by BJP. In such a situation, Congress’s Kham theory became convenient for BJP. 25 thousand workers were recruited in BJP.
Most of those who joined are OBC and Ujliyat people.
Before the 2022 assembly elections, Hardik Patel, famous for the Patidar reservation movement, and Thakor community leader Alpesh Thakor also joined BJP.
The question is whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah’s home state Gujarat will be able to recover from its poor performance in the last two elections? If it wins even one or two seats, it may be Modi’s defeat, but with this Congress cannot come to power. If the situation remains the same in the Gujarat assembly elections in future, then Congress will remember its bad policy. (Google translation from Gujarati)
