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Crore Loss Farmers and Government on a Collision Course
Dilip Patel Ahmedabad, March 21, 2025
On average, farmers harvested 40 quintals of wheat per farm. This year, the yield dropped to 20 quintals, significantly lower than the typical 60 quintals in a good year. Due to a sharp decline in production and prices, Gujarat’s 12 lakh wheat farmers have incurred substantial losses, with the Saurashtra region’s 10 districts being the hardest hit.
The Narendra Modi-led central government and Bhupendra Patel’s BJP government in Gujarat are buying wheat from farmers at lower prices and distributing free grain to 80% of the state’s population. This has created a double burden on farmers: traders are reluctant to purchase wheat from them, and the actual market price remains suppressed. Since the government provides free grain, traders buy less from farmers. The BJP government, instead of imposing higher taxes on wealthy traders to support the poor, buys wheat at low prices from farmers and distributes it for free. Consequently, farmers face a triple blow as market prices are artificially depressed.
Considering these circumstances, Gujarat’s wheat farmers are preparing for a protest. A coordination committee of 30 farmer organizations is scheduled to meet to decide their course of action. Farmers are demanding an increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) by Rs. 250 per quintal, pushing it to Rs. 600 per quintal. They also want permission to export wheat, improved irrigation facilities, and the removal of government control over wheat markets.
Dahyabhai Gajera, a leader of the Gujarat Farmer Organization, has voiced these demands.
This year, Gujarat’s wheat farmers have suffered losses amounting to Rs. 100 crore due to lower production and reduced prices. The total loss is estimated to be Rs. 2500 crore. Consequently, they are urging the government to provide bonuses similar to other states.
Additionally, due to high temperatures, wheat production is expected to drop by 20%. However, the government has projected higher production compared to last year, further driving down wheat prices.
Weather Impacts on Production In February, temperatures surged from 18°C to 41°C, negatively impacting production. Recent years have seen excessive heat at the end of the winter season, unlike the past when cold weather lasted until Holi, allowing crops to mature properly. The shortened maturity period resulted in smaller wheat grains with inadequate starch absorption, reducing overall weight.
The ‘Lok-1’ wheat variety, typically maturing in 120 days, ripened in just 110 days this year due to the temperature spike.
Temperature-Related Production Decline If temperatures remain below 30°C for the first 60 to 70 days after planting, wheat yields are generally good. However, higher temperatures force early ripening, leading to smaller, lighter grains. In February, Gujarat’s wheat production faced a 5-10% drop due to unseasonal heat.
Despite favorable rainfall and good irrigation, Gujarat’s wheat productivity remains lower than Punjab and Haryana. In those states, cooler temperatures ensure the crop matures properly over 120 days. In contrast, Gujarat’s wheat season lasts only 105 to 120 days.
Increased Cultivation Area The area under wheat cultivation in Gujarat expanded this year. Following the cotton harvest, farmers sowed wheat in approximately 13.57 lakh hectares, up from 12.26 lakh hectares last year. Nationally, 8 lakh hectares of additional wheat cultivation was reported.
Production in Gujarat India’s wheat production is estimated at 1154 lakh tonnes. Gujarat’s share is projected to be around 43.44 lakh tonnes, compared to last year’s 39.03 lakh tonnes. However, farmers expect actual production to be closer to 30 lakh tonnes, a potential deficit of 1 million tonnes. Farmers are demanding Rs. 6000 per tonne, but current prices remain much lower.
State-Wise Production Estimates (in lakh tonnes)
- Uttar Pradesh: 357
- Madhya Pradesh: 235
- Punjab: 172
- Haryana: 113
- Rajasthan: 109
- Bihar: 69
- Gujarat: 41.58
Despite production declines in other states like Haryana, Punjab, and Bihar, the Gujarat government has estimated increased production, raising concerns among farmers.
Productivity Gujarat’s wheat productivity has dropped from 3,559 kg per hectare to an estimated 3,200 kg per hectare. In comparison, Punjab and Haryana achieve 5,000 to 6,000 kg per hectare. Farmers in Gujarat face significantly lower yields.
Prices and Losses The current market price for wheat in Gujarat is around Rs. 460 per quintal, while Rs. 600 per quintal is considered profitable. The state declared an MSP of Rs. 485 per quintal. With retail wheat prices at Rs. 600, the government has established 218 procurement centers to buy 2 lakh tonnes of wheat.
Despite online registrations from 51,000 farmers, actual government purchases remain low. Most farmers avoid selling to the government due to unprofitable rates.
Last year, the Russia-Ukraine war caused global wheat prices to rise, encouraging farmers to expand wheat cultivation. However, this year, prices have fallen sharply.
Overall Losses The government estimated a wheat output of 43.44 lakh tonnes at Rs. 6000 per tonne, amounting to Rs. 2606 crore. However, with expected actual production of 30 lakh tonnes, farmers may receive only Rs. 1800 crore, resulting in a Rs. 806 crore loss.
Additionally, farmers are selling wheat below the MSP. The estimated loss could reach Rs. 1300 crore, reducing to Rs. 1000 crore if production estimates are adjusted. Compared to Punjab’s farmers, Gujarat’s farmers face 50% lower yields, leading to a cumulative loss of Rs. 2500 crore.
