BJP has plan to deepen the Shia-Sunni wedge

By Abdul hafiz lakhani Ahmedabad/ New Delhi, Siyasat

Former MP Mohammed Adeeb recently told Delhi based website that he thinks the 2019 elections is the last battle for India’s soul.After that there would be no Constitution left. If Opposition leaders do not unite, their status will be the same as that of Muslims today. Let them face what Muslims are experiencing today. We Muslims made a choice not to go to Pakistan. Yet, after 70 years, we are being asked to prove our patriotism and submit the video recordings of madrassas [celebrating India’s Independence Day]. Isn’t it the responsibility of Hindus to speak out, to come together now?

2019 Loksabha election will decide the destiny of India. This is the most important election in post-independence era as saffron party –BJP is looking for second term at center under the leadership of PM Modi to take RSS agenda ahead to bring so called ‘Ram Rajya’ in country. secularism and constitution of this country is questioned by this dispensation many times in past indirectly. On the other hand opposition parties are still directionless and clueless to fight this saffron brigade.

With elections nearby in India, the Muslim vote is of vital importance to the outcome. The country’s single largest religious minority makes up 14 percent of India’s population of more than 1.2 billion people. About 17 crores 22 lac population of India constitutes the Muslim community. And in some constituencies the Muslim vote can play a key role in deciding the winner, analysts say.

Here’s how Muslims has an impact through vote percent on each seat

• There are 145 seats in India where Muslims accounts for 20% of the overall vote share on each seat
• There are 38 seats in India where Muslims has a vote share of 30%
• There are almost 35 seats in India in which out of every 3 votes is a Muslim vote
• Overall there all 218 seats in India where Muslims have a great influence

So its clear from the above data that Muslims can have a great influence on most of the seats and can play a vital role in Indian politics. If the Muslim votes consolidate in favor of the particular candidate then the chances of him/her getting elected are maximum.
But after the 2014 general election, there are only 24 Muslim MP’s which constitutes only 5% of overall Members of Parliament. In 2014, 38% of Muslims voted for Congress, 8.5% for BJP, Left for 6.4% and Samajwadi Party managed to get 11.2%

Year of polls

Number of MPs %
1 1952 11 2
2 1957 19 4
3 1962 20 4
4 1967 25 5
5 1971 28 6
6 1977 34 7
7 1980 49 10
8 1984 42 8
9 1989 27 6
10 1991 25 5
11 1996 29 6
12 1998 28 6
13 1999 31 6
14 2004 34 7
15 2009 30 6

The BJP largely gained from the sharp division among its anti-vote banks , including the Muslims, between the two regional forces both in the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2017 assembly elections in UP, which fills 80 seats in the lower house of Parliament.The state that had sent 73 of its candidates to the Lok Sabha in 2014 is crucial to the party’s ambition of returning to power in next year’s general election. The BJP high command is keen on retaining the tally, if not increasing it.

The plan is two-fold: deepen the Shia-Sunni wedge; and create a gender divide in the community by reiterating Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s commitment to delivering justice to Muslim women by banning instant triple talaq. Thus, when Modi, in his recent rallies in Muslim-dominated Azamgarh and Hindutva-smitten Varanasi mocked the Congress, describing it as a party of Muslim men, he was sending a clear message to the community.
He was demonising the Congress for obstructing clearance of the bill in the Rajya Sabha, besides Muslim men who inflict injustice on their women through instant talaq.The Triple Talaq bill, cleared by the Lok Sabha, is pending in the Rajya Sabha. Undoubtedly, Muslim women have lauded Modi for giving them protection. But will this appreciation convert into votes in the 2019 elections?
Though there is no empirical evidence to confirm the conjecture about the silent support of Muslim women voters to the BJP in the 2017 polls, party leaders believe that their gesture did soften their intransigence against the BJP since the demolition of Ayodhya shrine in 1992.
The party leaders insist that their victory in Muslim-dominated Deoband in the 2017 polls would not have been possible without the support of Muslim women. But can the social issue of triple talaq actually bring the BJP a windfall of support at a time when party president Amit Shah is talking about temple constructionin Ayodhya before the polls and when issues like mob lynching, love jihad (a controversial term coined by fringe outfits to describe cases of what they believe are forced marriages between Muslim men and Hindu women) and ban on slaughter houses are haunting them?
The BJP’s move is tactical as unity among the Muslims may affect their prospects in at least 30 of the 80 constituencies in Uttar Pradesh, besides in states like Bihar, Karnataka, West Bengal, Maharashtra, and Andhra Pradesh. According to the census report, Muslims account for 13.5% of the country’s population and 18% in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh.