Gujarat, 8% less polling than 2017 in the first phase

If we look at the trends of voting in the districts of Saurashtra-Kutch and South Gujarat in the first phase of Gujarat elections, this time the voting has decreased by about eight percent as compared to the last election. In the 2012 Gujarat Assembly elections, the first phase saw a voter turnout of 70.75 per cent. In this way, this time the voting percentage has decreased as compared to the last two elections, due to which the political parties have suffered a major setback. This time, apart from Congress and BJP, the contest is being considered triangular due to the entry of Aam Aadmi Party into the electoral arena.

Low turnout in Saurashtra-Kutch
In 54 seats in 12 districts of Saurashtra-Kutch region, 58 percent voting took place this time, while in 2017, 65 percent voting took place. On the other hand, if we talk about South Gujarat, 66 percent voting has been done in 35 seats in seven districts, whereas in 2017, 70 percent voting was done. In such a situation, the seats in the Saurashtra-Kutch region have seen 7 percent less voting as compared to the last assembly elections, while the seats in South Gujarat have seen 4 percent less voting.

Of the 12 districts in Saurashtra-Kutch, only Morbi saw 54 per cent polling while other districts recorded less than 50 per cent polling. Thus low turnout in Patidar dominated constituencies and high turnout in tribal-OBC dominated seats has put not only candidates but also political parties in trouble.

Congress gains, BJP loses
If we look at the 2017 elections on the seats of the first phase, there was a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress. The Congress dominated the Saurashtra-Kutch region, while the BJP made a clean sweep in South Gujarat. In the 2017 elections, BJP won 48 seats, Congress 39, BTP 2 and NCP one of the 89 seats that went to polls in the first phase. If you look at the 2012 election results, out of 89 seats, BJP got 63, Congress got 22 and others got 4 seats. In this way Congress had to gain and BJP had to suffer.

In 2017, the Congress had won 38 out of 89 seats with a vote share of around 42 per cent. BJP captured 48 seats with 49 per cent vote share. However, in the 2012 elections, the gap between the BJP and the Congress was huge. Then Congress got 10 percent more votes than BJP’s 48 percent. The effect of vote percentage was also seen on seats, but in 2017 Congress got 10 percent votes. However, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 85 out of 89 seats with a vote share of around 62 per cent.

Result of 70% seats
In the 2017 elections, most of the assembly seats where more than 70 percent voting took place went to the Congress’s account. There were 27 assembly seats in the first phase, where more than 70 percent voting took place. If you look at the results of these seats, Congress has won 14 seats and BJP has won 11 seats. Congress candidates won in Kaprada, Nijar, Mandvi, Vyara, Vansda, Nandod, Somnath, Wankaner, Tankara, Jasdan, Dang, Morbi, Jambusar, Talala. While BJP won Jetpur, Ankleshwar, Mandvi, Navsari, Jalalpur, Dharampur, Mangrol, Mahuva, Wagra, Gandevi, Bardoli seats. Apart from this, BTP has won Dediapada and Jagadiya seats.

Bad performance of BJP
The worst performance of BJP in the last election was in Saurashtra region. In the first phase out of 19 districts, BJP could not open its account in 7 districts. BJP did not get a single seat in Amreli, Narmada, Dang, Tapi, Aravali, Morbi and Gir Somnath districts. There are five seats in Amreli, four in Gir Somnath, three each in Aravali and Morbi, two each in Narmada and Tapi and one in Dang. Congress won all these seats. The Congress won more seats than the BJP in Surendranagar, Junagadh and Jamnagar. Congress won four out of five seats in Surendranagar district, four out of five seats in Junagadh district and three out of five seats in Jamnagar district.

Poor performance of Congress
In the first phase, Porbandar was the only district where the Congress’s account was not opened. BJP was successful in winning both the seats here. The BJP managed to win more seats than the Congress in Kutch, Rajkot, Bhavnagar, Bharuch, Surat, Navsari and Balsad. Out of 15 out of 16 seats in Surat, BJP and Congress got only one seat. Surat was the most important contributor to the BJP’s return to power.

According to the Election Commission, Narmada district recorded the highest voter turnout of 73.02 percent, while Tapi district recorded 72.32 percent in the first phase of Gujarat elections. In this way, more than 60 percent polling was recorded in eight districts. Surat recorded 60.17 percent, Bharuch 63.28, Dang 64.84, Somnath 60.46, Morbi 67.60, Narmada 68.09, Navsari 65.91, Surendranagar 60.71 and Valsad 65.24 percent. Devbhoomi Dwarka 59.11, Rajkot 57.69, Botad 57.15, Amreli 52.93, Bhavnagar 57.81, Jamnagar 53.98, Junagadh 56.95, Kutch 54.91, Porbandar 53.1 percent.
The first phase of the Gujarat Assembly elections saw a voter turnout of over 60 per cent in 89 seats, but a lower turnout than in the 2017 elections. In the first phase, elections have been held on the seats of Saurashtra, Kutch and South Gujarat, where there was a tough fight between BJP and Congress in the last election.

In the first phase of the Gujarat Assembly elections, polling was held on 89 seats in 19 districts, in which the fate of 788 candidates was sealed in the EVM machines. The enthusiasm of the voters in the first phase of voting on Thursday did not show like the last assembly elections. before