ગુજરાતી
English
Dilip Patel
Ahmedabad, 29 May 2024 (Google translation)
As soon as the final phase of voting ends on 1 June 2024 at 6 pm, news and current affairs from 892 private television satellite channels on 403 satellite-based television channels will start reporting who will form the government. That news will reach every home through 23 crore television sets.
There are 32 satellite television channels in Gujarat. There are 25 news channels in it. YouTube news There are approximately 250 television channels. It will be interesting to see which party will get how many seats on all these.
Tomorrow is 30 May. The Prime Minister will complete 5 years. On 30 May 2019, Narendra Modi took oath as Prime Minister. This time he is repeatedly saying that he will win power by bringing 400 seats. Even before the announcement of elections, BJP had declared that it will win more than 400 seats in Lok Sabha.
How would this have been revealed? Why would such a prediction be made? Can’t the Election Commission stop such predictions? If this is so, then why are exit polls being conducted?
If Modi himself is saying that he will form the government again by winning more than 400 seats. Only such a figure can influence the voters. BJP voters can either support it or go against it.
It is being said repeatedly that BJP will win all the 26 seats in Gujarat for the third time in a row. However, trends are being seen that BJP may lose 6 seats this time. But, exit polls will say that BJP may get 25 out of 26 seats in Gujarat. But the results will show that BJP has won all the seats. Then in the surveys it was shown that the voters were right. That question will remain.
The voters have rejected the Prime Minister’s appeal for more voting. This time the voting has been less and fake voting has been done in many areas. If 400 seats were to be won, then why did leaders from other parties have to be transferred.
There has been unbridled use of power in Gujarat. There have been many incidents in Gujarat where the police and the commission have been used in one’s favor. All this has to be done to retain power. This time the Prime Minister has to do the most work of getting votes by lying. Politicians were arrested, sent to jail and intimidated. The anger of the people is huge. But the exit poll will give all the figures of BJP forming the government.
Exit polls do not take into account all such facts.
The results were declared on 23 May 2019. As predetermined, Paul was right. But Paul was completely wrong about the Congress meetings. Because instead of showing more seats, Congress got less seats.
Data of 30-35 thousand people is prepared and the government is decided by knowing who voted among those who went to the polling booth and came out after voting.
In India, it now seems that surveys are being used to change people’s thinking. Because the results are to be announced after 4 days, but it is a mystery why surveys are conducted by spending crores of rupees through all TVs. Why there was a hurry in declaring the results is a mystery.
If a party does not get even 200 seats, then it can be shown as getting 400 seats in the exit poll. The exact data of how many voters voted is never released. So there is full scope for fabrication. Exit polls can be used by any political party to justify tampering with elections or tampering with voting machines. Thus such exit polls can sometimes pose a threat to the country, even ending democracy.
By announcing such surveys before the elections, people’s anger can be calmed so that people can be made to believe that they have voted even if they have not voted.
Thus exit polls can be used to influence voters. In such a situation, many people believe that the Election Commission should ban such surveys or exit polls in the upcoming elections. Because there is full scope of using it to convert people’s right votes into wrong votes.
If not, then why does a TV channel spend crores of rupees on its survey. This is a big question. No single TV can attract a large number of viewers because its polls are coming on every TV. Because such surveys are on almost all TVs.
How can such a prediction be made when it is very difficult to estimate how many seats will come? This is a big question.
The exit poll estimates were almost correct. Bharatiya Janata Party came to power for the second time.
BJP won the maximum 303 seats. Congress got only 52 seats.
Trinamool Congress won 22, BSP 10, CPI 2, CPI (M) 3 and NCP 5 MPs won.
In most of the exit polls of Lok Sabha elections 2019, BJP has been shown coming to power. In the exit poll, NDA was seen getting a huge majority. The exit poll results were disappointing, especially for the Congress.
The opposition coalition ‘Bharat’ did not exist in 2019. Instead, all opposition parties contested the elections under the UPA. There were also some parties that did not become part of any alliance.
Barring two exit polls, every exit poll showed the BJP and its allies winning over 300 seats.
The Congress does not even seem to reach three figures.
Every exit poll gave the UPA more than 100 seats
All the exit polls of 2019 had predicted 100 to 120 seats for the UPA.
The Congress was the second largest party to win the most seats after the BJP.
Agency – BJP+ – Congress+ –
Others
Aaj Tak-Mari Axis 339-365 – 77-108 – 79-111
ABP-Nielsen – 267 – 127 – 148
India TV-CNX 300 – 120 – 122
News18-Ipsos 336 – 82 – 124
News 24-Chanakya 350 – 95 – 97
Times Now-VMR 306 – 132 – 104
News Nation 282-290 – 118-126 – 130-138
Republic-C Voter 305 – 124 – 113
Which agency predicted what?
In the News 24-Chanakya poll, NDA has been given more seats than ever before, i.e. 350 seats. Whereas UPA was shown 95 and others 97 seats.
News 18-Ipsos poll has given 336 seats to NDA, 82 to UPA and 124 to others.
Times Now-VMR has given 306 seats to NDA, 132 to UPA and 104 to others. News Nation has given 282 to 290 seats to NDA in its exit poll. UPA is said to have 118 to 126 seats. Others are shown getting 130 to 138 seats.
India TV-CNX exit poll also shows NDA getting 300 seats. UPA was shown 120 and others 122 seats.
NewsX has given the lowest 242 seats to NDA. UPA was given 162 and others 136 seats.
What were the results of the last election?
In 2019, elections were held in seven phases across the country. This election was held for 542 seats out of 543. There were 91.05 crore voters. 61.08 crore voters voted. 67.09% votes were cast in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
How are exit poll results prepared?
An attempt was made to know from the people who came out after voting which party they have voted for? An attempt is made to know in whose favor the votes are falling and which party has the upper hand? People of media organizations or agencies publishing exit and opinion polls collect data by asking these questions to people at polling stations.
The seventh and final phase of voting is on June 1. BJP candidate Mukesh Dalal has already been elected unopposed from Surat seat of Gujarat. In such a situation, the results of 542 seats will be declared on June 4.
But the exit poll will be announced by media channels and survey agencies on the evening of June 1. Which party can form the government in the country? How many seats can a party get? This will be estimated in this poll.
What is an exit poll?
Exit poll is a type of election survey. On the day of voting, when voters come out of the polling booth after voting, people from various survey agencies and news channels are present. It calculates by asking questions about voting from the voter.
How many seats can a party get based on a mathematical model based on the mood of the voters? It is broadcast only after the voting is over.
How many people are asked questions?
For a strong exit poll, there can be 30-35 thousand to one lakh voters.
Opinion poll:
Before the election, agencies conduct opinion polls and include all the people in it. Whether he is a voter or not. For the results of the opinion poll, an attempt is made to know the pulse of the public on important issues of various sectors from the electoral point of view. Under this, an attempt is made to know in every sector whether people are angry with the government or satisfied with its work.
Election surveys were first started in America in the world.
Britain conducted large-scale polling in 1937 and France in 1938.
Pre-poll surveys were conducted in Germany, Denmark, Belgium and Ireland.
The era of exit polls begins
Exit polls were introduced on 15 February 1967 by Dutch sociologist and former politician Marcel van Dam. His assessment of the elections held in the Netherlands at that time was quite accurate.
Exit polls in India were launched by Eric D’Costa, head of the Indian Institute of Public Opinion (IIPU).
In 1996, Doordarshan allowed the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) to conduct exit polls across the country.
Exit polls were broadcast on TV for the first time in 1998. (Google translation)
