Declining Bull Population in Cattle: After the ‘Pink Revolution’, a Debate Over the ‘Lab Revolution’

Sexed Semen Technology Boosts Female Calf Births, Future of Male Cattle Under Discussion

Dilip Patel
Ahmedabad

Cow protection and cattle conservation have long remained politically and socially significant issues in Gujarat. However, livestock statistics, changing dairy economics and emerging breeding technologies are presenting a different picture. A key question is now being raised: could the number of male cattle—bulls and male calves—decline sharply in the coming decades?

Gujarat introduced sexed semen technology in 2021 with the primary objective of increasing the birth of female calves, which are economically valuable for milk production. Production began in June 2021 at the Gujarat Bovine Semen Sexing Institute in Patan.

According to government data, nearly 800,000 doses of sexed semen had been produced by February 2026. About 341,000 doses were used, resulting in 64,500 pregnancies and 37,469 calf births. Of these, 34,184 were female and only 3,285 were male, indicating a female birth rate of 91.23 percent.

Why Are Male Cattle Declining?

Under natural biological conditions, male and female births occur at roughly a 50:50 ratio. However, sexed semen technology selectively uses sperm carrying the X chromosome, which results in female offspring.

Scientifically, male semen contains both X and Y chromosome-bearing sperm cells. X chromosomes produce female calves, while Y chromosomes produce males. The technology separates and prioritizes X-bearing sperm, dramatically increasing the likelihood of female births.

For dairy farmers, female calves are economically more valuable because they contribute directly to milk production. Male calves, on the other hand, have limited economic utility in modern dairy systems.

What Do Livestock Data Show?

According to the 2019 Livestock Census, Gujarat had approximately 6.2 million indigenous cows and 1.8 million indigenous bulls. Crossbred and exotic cows numbered around 3.3 million, while their male population stood at about 136,000.

Overall, Gujarat had nearly 9.5 million cows but only about 1.94 million bulls.

Experts note that natural populations would typically maintain a much more balanced male-female ratio. However, mechanized agriculture, increasing use of tractors, dairy-focused breeding practices and reproductive technologies have all contributed to a decline in male cattle numbers.

The indigenous male cattle population reportedly declined by nearly 38.84 percent over the period examined.

Indigenous Breeds Declining, Crossbreeds Expanding

The number of indigenous cows in Gujarat has also fallen significantly.

Available data indicate a decline of 22.72 percent in native cattle populations, while crossbred and exotic cattle have increased by 76.84 percent.

The post-White Revolution focus on higher milk yields encouraged farmers to adopt more productive breeds. As a result, concerns are growing about the long-term future of traditional breeds such as Gir and Kankrej.

What Could Happen After 2030?

If current trends continue, future livestock censuses may show a further decline in the proportion of male cattle.

However, available evidence does not support definitive claims that bulls will disappear entirely by 2030. Natural breeding, conventional semen programs, conservation initiatives and indigenous breed development efforts continue to operate.

Nevertheless, the declining economic role of male cattle is clearly placing pressure on their population.

Challenges for Indigenous Breeds

Gir and Kankrej cattle are among Gujarat’s most renowned indigenous breeds.

Livestock experts warn that without focused conservation measures, maintaining their genetic diversity could become increasingly difficult.

Native breeds are generally better adapted to heat stress and climate variability, while many exotic breeds require higher maintenance and management costs.

Government and Dairy Industry Perspective

The government argues that sexed semen technology is intended to improve farmers’ incomes.

The production cost of a single dose is estimated at around ₹710. Farmers were initially charged ₹300 per dose, but the price was later reduced to ₹50 to encourage wider adoption.

Dairy cooperatives maintain that more female animals mean higher milk production and improved rural incomes.

The Core Question

The debate is not simply about cattle numbers; it is about the future structure of India’s livestock economy.

On one side are dairy productivity, higher milk output and modern biotechnology. On the other are concerns over indigenous breed conservation, genetic diversity and the declining share of male cattle.

As technology continues to reshape animal breeding, Gujarat may become a key case study in balancing economic efficiency with biodiversity conservation in the livestock sector.