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Chaitar Vasava: The Sole Hero of the Gujarat Elections
Ahmedabad, May 9, 2026
In the 2026 local self-government elections in Gujarat, tribal leader Chaitar Vasava has emerged as the most influential figure amidst a multitude of parties and leaders, making the greatest impact. He has come to be viewed as the true hero of the tribal belt.
Deputy Chief Minister Harsh Sanghavi was entrusted with the responsibility for the tribal region; however, he failed to make a significant impact there.
In Gujarat’s tribal areas, the vote share percentages of various parties witnessed a major shift in the 2026 local self-government elections compared to 2021. Notably, following the political rise of Chaitar Vasava, the tribal politics of the AAP/BAP alliance have strengthened, while the vote banks of both the BJP and the Congress have crumbled.
The report presents election news, trends, and an analysis of the District Panchayat and Taluka Panchayat results across the tribal districts of Narmada, Dang, Chhota Udaipur, Tapi, and Bharuch.
Projected Percentage Change in Votes: 2021 vs. 2026
The BJP’s vote share declined from 46–48% in 2021 to 43–45% in 2026, marking a drop in its overall votes.
The Congress, which secured 38–40% of the votes in 2021, saw its share plummet significantly to 22–26% in 2026.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) saw its vote share rise from 3–5% in 2021 to 10–14%, representing a threefold increase.
The Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP), which received a negligible number of votes in 2021, saw its share surge to 12–18% in 2026.
The ‘Others’ category received 4–6% of the votes in 2021, remaining relatively stable at approximately 4–6% in 2026. Key Political Trends:
Narmada District
The most significant shift was observed here. Due to the influence of Chaitar Vasava, local tribal politics—specifically the opposition to the BJP—gained considerable strength.
Dediapada and Sagbara
These areas recorded the sharpest decline in Congress’s vote share.
Tapi District
Interest in the AAP/BAP has surged among young tribal voters.
Chhota Udaipur
A triangular electoral contest has intensified.
Dang
Congress’s vote base shifted towards the BAP/AAP.
These shifts were particularly pronounced in the tribal belt, where local tribal leadership, issues concerning land and forest rights, and Chaitar Vasava’s personal popularity exerted a direct and profound influence.
The primary impact observed in the 2026 elections was as follows:
The BJP failed to achieve a complete clean sweep in the Narmada district. According to reports, the BAP achieved significant success in several Taluka Panchayats.
Chaitar Vasava’s assertive public image resonated strongly with tribal youth and influenced discourse on issues such as the ‘Narmada Bachao’ (Save Narmada) movement, land rights, and employment.
Congress’s traditional tribal vote bank fragmented further; in many regions, the opposition vote shifted towards the AAP. While the BJP managed to retain seats in most tribal areas—bolstered by its organizational strength and welfare schemes—it faced much stiffer competition in several constituencies compared to previous elections.
At the local level, the narrative pitting “local tribal leadership against ‘outsider’ leaders” gained further momentum.
Politically, the most significant transformation is that the tribal belt is no longer merely a direct battleground between the BJP and Congress.
Areas Influenced by Chaitar Vasava:
Bharuch District Panchayat: Power has been secured in the Bharuch District Panchayat.
Dediapada: His strongest bastion. Following his victory in the Legislative Assembly election, the influence of both the AAP as a party and Chaitar Vasava personally has grown significantly here. Sagbara: Chaitar Vasava’s direct influence was clearly evident among tribal youth and in the rural areas of this region.
Nandod: Despite being the district headquarters area, his influence has expanded into the surrounding rural hinterland. Valia – An area that helped AAP establish a foothold within the tribal belt of Bharuch.
Jhagadia – Influence grew amidst local resentment stemming from industrial and land-related issues.
Nizar – Efforts were made to strengthen the organizational structure in this tribal border region of the Tapi district.
Uchchhal – A style of politics centered on youth engagement and social movements garnered a positive response.
Quant – Here, thanks to Chaitar Vasava’s campaigns and public meetings, a distinct brand of tribal politics—akin to the AAP/BAP model—rose to prominence in local discourse.
Pavi Jetpur – On this traditionally Congress-dominated seat, the party emerged as a viable new alternative, making a significant impact.
Due to his focus on local tribal issues, his political identity solidified as that of a “tribal leader,” rather than merely an “AAP leader.” By 2026, in several regions, his personal influence began to visibly outweigh that of the party itself. Politically, the most profound impact was observed within the Narmada-Bharuch-Tapi tribal corridor, where the Congress party’s traditional support base eroded, and a potent “third voice” emerged to challenge the BJP.
In the Dahod district, there is a combined total of 322 seats across the District Panchayat, Taluka Panchayats, and Municipalities.
One seat in the Dahod District Panchayat was declared filled unopposed. Voting was held for the remaining 49 out of the 50 seats. The District Election Officer for Dahod was Yogesh Nirgude.
11 Taluka Panchayats:
Out of a total of 249 seats, 5 seats were filled unopposed. Elections were held for the remaining 244 seats.
Dahod Municipality: Comprising 36 seats, 7 were filled unopposed, while elections were held for the remaining 29 seats.
20 – BJP
14 – Congress
2 – Independents
Over the past 25 years, an estimated ₹100,000 has been allocated for every tribal individual; if calculated on a per-family basis, this figure amounts to ₹600,000 over the same 25-year period. This raises the pertinent question: where has all this money gone? 2002–07: ₹5,640 crore
2008–2012: ₹17,200 crore
2013–2017: ₹40,000 crore
2017–2022: ₹69,000 crore
2022–23: ₹14,600 crore
2023–24: ₹15,000 crore
2024–25: ₹15,000 crore
2025–26: ₹15,000 crore
During the Modi administration, out of a total of ₹1 lakh crore, ₹23,000 crore has been allocated.
Election Mirror
In the 2026 Gujarat local body elections, no separate official vote share figures were announced specifically for the “Tribal Belt.” However, based on an aggregation of the District and Taluka Panchayat results from major tribal districts—such as Dahod, Chhota Udaipur, Narmada, Dang, Tapi, Mahisagar, and Panchmahal—the estimated political trend was as follows:
The BJP secured 53 percent of the votes in the state….while securing 45 percent of the votes in tribal areas.
Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)
The largest lead was recorded in the Narmada district.
In the Taluka Panchayats, AAP’s statewide vote share stood at 12.67%.
In Narmada, AAP received approximately 1.18 lakh votes across 6 Taluka Panchayats.
In the tribal belt, the BJP’s vote share remained lower than the state average,
whereas AAP and BAP garnered support exceeding the state average.
Projected Vote Share in Tribal Areas (2026)
Party | Projected Vote Share | Status
BJP | 45% – 48% | Largest Party
Congress | 24% – 28% | No change in traditional support, though a decline is evident
Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) | 15% – 18% | Strong foothold in Narmada and select Talukas
BAP / Others | 6% – 10% | Influence in the Dahod-Chhota Udaipur region. (Google Translation from Gujarati)
