In Gujarat, BJP government will be formed once again in 2022, Congress’s base broken


Dilip Patel

Gandhinagar, 4 March 2021

The difference between the percentage of votes of both BJP and Congress in the last three assembly elections has been barely 7 per cent to 10 per cent. Now, in the 2022 elections, the difference will be 12 per cent, with the local base declining, the 2022 seats in the Congress Legislative Assembly will shrink to less than 50 seats. Looking at the support base of the BJP in the local government, it can be said.

In 2017, the Congress calculated that it could win the assembly elections by increasing its vote percentage by 4%. This time the vote share between Congress and BJP is 14 to 15 percent. Which is very difficult for Congress to reduce. Therefore, in the next assembly elections, once again the BJP government is being formed.

If Congress wants to form a government in Gujarat, then there will be a mass movement across the country by demanding to vote with the ballot paper. Local movement has to be done with the ballot paper election. Congress and its partners will have to tell to the Election Commission, no election without a ballot. If the issue is not taken to the international level, then Congress will not be able to do anything.

In the 2012 assembly elections, the BJP received 47.85 percent of the vote due to third parties, including Keshubhai Patel, which split in support of the BJP. The Congress got 38.93 percent of the votes. Congress took the lead in 2017 with 113 assembly seats, based on a local election. Congress got more votes after the reservation movement.

But now this cannot happen. Now the Aam Aadmi Party, Rakopa, Owaisi, Adivasi Morcha parties will differentiate between the votes of the Congress. There is a large voter who is dissatisfied with BJP’s Rupani and Modi government. Those votes were to be known to Congress but now they will go to these parties. Therefore, forming a Congress government is a dream. The reality is that Congress cannot retain 77 seats. Once again, within 50 seats of Congress, local self-government institutions have a broad base. This shows that the BJP will once again form the government in Gujarat.

In the 2015 local body elections – municipal corporations, municipalities, and panchayats, the collective base grew by 4.59 percent. As a result, the BJP lost most of its institutions in the municipality-panchayat elections. BJP’s vote share fell by 1.25 percent. The Congress won 23 out of 31 district panchayats, 151 out of 221 taluka panchayats, and 12 municipalities. The mood-changing stance finally fell on Congress.

In 2021, the BJP received 54.19 percent of the votes in the district panchayats. The Congress got 39.17 percent votes. Thus, the Aam Aadmi Party got 2.66 percent votes.

Hindutva of 2002

In the 2002 elections, Congress got only 35.38 percent votes. Which increased to 43.52 percent at the end of 2015. Thus the influence of Hindutva had a huge impact on the voters. Which is also the morning of 2021 today. In 2021 it has come down to 39 percent. The population base has declined by 4 percent.

Both Congress and BJP are looking at the December 2022 elections as a political barometer of the mood of the Gujarati people.

Ahmedabad broke down

In 2015, after 12 years of exile in the cities, the Congress gained widespread support. Congress corporators in the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation were promoted. The demarcation of new wards in the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation has led to an increase in the number of Congress corporators from 2010 due to a panel of 4 corporators. 11 BJP corporators were elected less. In the 2010 elections, the Congress had 37 corporators. Which increased to 49. In 2015, 151 corporators of the BJP fell to 142.

Hindutva still continues

In the urban areas of Gujarat, after the 2002 Godhra massacre, the Congress was deported by Hindu voters. At the end of 12 years, in 2015 the wave of Hindutva came to a halt. There was strong opposition in the metros of Surat, Rajkot, Ahmedabad. Now, despite the issues plaguing the people, the BJP has got votes again in 2021.

Even after the rebellion of Shankarsinh Vaghela, the Congress had more elected representatives in Gujarat than the BJP. Out of a total of 4,778 in 2010, 2,460 public representatives were from BJP in all local bodies. It was reduced to 1718 in 2015. Whereas Congress increased from 1428 to 2102.

In 2021

In 2021, the BJP has 800 seats in the Zilla Panchayat. Congress made 169.

In Taluka Panchayat, BJP got 52.27 percent votes with 3351 seats and Congress got 38.82 percent votes with 1252 seats. Thus, the Aam Aadmi Party has got 31 seats. There were a total of 4771 seats.

Out of the 2720 municipal seats, BJP got 2085 seats with 52.7 percent votes. The Congress got 388 seats with 29.09 percent votes. The NCP got 5 seats with 0.5 percent votes, the Samajwadi Party got 14 seats with 0.83 percent votes, the Aam Aadmi Party got 9 seats with 4.16 percent votes and Owaisi got 17 seats with 0.7 percent votes. Independents won 24 seats with 1.19 percent of the vote.(translated from Gujarati)