ગુજરાતી
English
Serious blow to production, if prices increase, inflation will also increase.
Dilip Patel
Ahmedabad, June 26, 2026
El Nino is a threat to India’s rain-dependent agricultural products worth Rs 30 thousand crores. If Gujarat’s share is considered to be 5 percent then there is a threat to agricultural products worth Rs 1500 crore.
Out of 56 lakh farmers of Gujarat, the problems of at least 30 lakh farmers may increase. Due to reduced production of agricultural products, prices of agricultural products will increase, hence there is a possibility of inflation.
Such a situation of less rainfall has arisen after 11 years.
Monsoon starts from 15th June. But the slow pace of monsoon and the effect of El Nino has affected the sowing of Kharif season. This may affect the production of main crops like groundnut, cotton, soybean, sugarcane, pulses and edible oil. There is a possibility that due to less rainfall, the prices of food items will increase and the supply of agricultural goods will reduce.
irrigation farming
By June 22, 2026, a total of 9 percent of agriculture in Gujarat is based on irrigation. Which includes farming based on wells, ponds and dams.
The government claims that water is being provided from Narmada. If so, then water should have reached 18 lakh hectares. But even in 1 percent i.e. 1800 hectares, sowing is not known to have taken place before the waters of Narmada.
Sowing should have taken place in a total of 85 lakh hectares of fields but sowing has been done in only 7 lakh 67 thousand hectares. Which is 9 percent. Last year, till June 22, 2025, sowing was done in 18 lakh 30 thousand hectares.
Out of the total sowing area, sowing has been done in 5 lakh hectares in Saurashtra, 1 lakh 40 thousand hectares in North Gujarat, 47 thousand hectares in Central Gujarat and 7 lakh 67 thousand hectares in South Gujarat.
Advance sowing of borewell irrigation has been done, in which groundnut is in 2 lakh 39 thousand hectares, cotton is in 4 lakh 38 thousand hectares. Vegetables are 30 thousand hectares, fodder is 45 thousand hectares.
According to Bloomberg, this could have an impact of Rs 30 thousand crore on India’s agricultural economy.
The slow pace of monsoon has started affecting the sowing of Kharif season. The month of June is considered important for sowing of Kharif crops like paddy, cotton, soybean and millet. But due to delay in rain in large areas, farmers are still waiting for rain.
This decrease in this monsoon has come at a time when.
According to a Bloomberg report, El Nino forming in the Pacific Ocean may further weaken India’s monsoon in the coming months. The report said that this will not only increase the risk of impact on Kharif crop production, but may also put pressure on the prices of essential agricultural commodities like edible oil, sugar, cotton and pulses. This is also expected to affect inflation.
Effect of late sowing of monsoon
The south-west monsoon in India is usually based on June rains, which is the basis of the sowing calendar for kharif crops. There was a delay of about two weeks in the arrival of monsoon in Mumbai, due to which the concern of the farmers has increased.
June is an important time for sowing of Kharif crops. Farmers start sowing only after the first good rain. Because of this, lack of good rain in many areas till the last week of June is affecting farming.
According to Bloomberg, the drought-like situation is being felt most in Central India and Deccan region. These include large farming areas like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana. About 90 percent of the country’s soybean and sugarcane, 80 percent of cotton and 70 percent of groundnuts and pulses, such as lentils and chickpeas, are produced in these areas. These states also play an important role in the cultivation of fruits and vegetables, which impacts the agricultural market across the country.
Nashik receives much less rainfall than normal.
The report said that onion prices increased sharply in August and September due to weak monsoon season in Nashik, Maharashtra. Nashik has received only 16 percent of the normal rainfall so far in June.
El Nino can further weaken the monsoon.
Scientists have not yet fully understood all the factors affecting the Indian monsoon. Therefore, El Nino alone cannot be responsible for the delay in monsoon. However, as the year progresses, the impact of El Nino is likely to increase. According to the report, this could result in the weakest monsoon in the last 11 years. Late sown crops may also have to face conditions like less rainfall and drought.
impact on inflation
The Reserve Bank of India has described bad weather as a major risk in its economic projections.
ban on export
Following a poor monsoon and floods in 2023, the central government banned rice exports to control prices in the domestic market. India’s share in the world rice trade is about 40 percent. If the current weather conditions remain the same, a new ban may be imposed on sugar exports.
Agriculture system stronger than before, but climate still a challenge
Although food systems have been made more robust, increasing uncertainty due to climate change remains a major challenge. Global warming is making the timing and patterns of monsoons increasingly unpredictable. This is increasing the risk of extreme weather events like drought and floods. (Google translation from Gujarati, see original report)
